Is all well on Fantasy Island?
Q:Well is this place an Island or a peninsula?
A:Based on pricing history its a BUBBLE Island, but actually really a peninsula .
But what we can agree on is its a scenic place:
Lovely View of the “Island” and world famous Hotel Del.
To go along with this Utopia of Large beaches, fantastic Village area and tons of History , we have this:
A full fledged Naval Airbase- a great example of our gov’t keppin’ the Bubble intact
A major reason of inflated pricing in Coronado is the Housing stipend that many Pilots and officers receive to live here. Usually averaging 3-5k per month! So with a extra 3-5k to spend on housing every month, its easy to see why housing prices and rents in Coronado have somewhat “stabilized” at such bubblicious levels.
BUT IS THS ALL LIKELY TO CHANGE?
The answer is eventually -yes! We know that all bubbles implode to at least the level of were the bubble first started-its a law of Physics.It will take 3-5 years for this one to blow.
Lets look at two seperate homes in 92118 to illustrate the magnitude of this bubble:
1116 Third st Coronado, 92118
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coronado/1116-3rd-St-92118/home/5781491
| Beds: | 1 |
| Baths: | 1.5 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 603 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $1,242 |
| Lot Size: | - |
| Property Type: | Residential, Detached |
| Style: | Craftsman/Bungalow |
| Stories: | 1 |
| Year Built: | 1924 |
“This charming cottage has many fine features including a fireplace, hardwood floors, large brick patio, air conditioning and lots of parking. Listing agent is owner. This charming home has many fine features, including fireplace with brick hearth, hardwood floors, air conditioning, French doors leading onto large brick patio. Parking in garage, driveway and back yard from alley entrance. Large storage area in finished attic. City park and library just down the street.”
Property History for 1116 Third St
| Date | Event | Price | Appreciation | Source | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2011 | Relisted (Active) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 17, 2011 | Delisted (Expired) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 16, 2011 | Relisted (Active) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 13, 2011 | Delisted (Expired) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 12, 2011 | Price Changed | $749,000 | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 12, 2011 | Relisted (Active) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Jul 12, 2011 | Delisted (Expired) | – | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Apr 13, 2011 | Listed (Active) | $775,000 | – | SANDICOR #110021647 | ||
| Mar 24, 2006 | Sold (Public Records) | $645,000 | 9.1%/yr | Public Records | ||
| Jul 30, 2002 | Sold (Public Records) | $470,000 | 12.1%/yr | Public Records | ||
| Jun 14, 1999 | Sold (Public Records) | $329,000 | 9.2%/yr | Public Records | ||
| Apr 17, 1992 | Sold (Public Records) | $175,000 | – | Public Records | ||
PRICE-$749000! Say what? Ok a tiny 1 bedroom home on a busy roadway(third st is the entry street into town from the bridge, 4th is the exit street)
sold for 175k in 1992,then 329k in 1999,470 in 2002 and then 645k in 2006! This is how the California dreamin began! Everyone makes money on real estate, just hold for a couple years,then sell for a couple hundred grand higher.
lets see what its really worth with the “california dreamin’ price indicator”(value on 01/01/2000 + 1/3 the renovations)
approx price on 01/01/2000 – $340000 + renovations (none on this one)=present value-$340000 (probably less as its primarily a land value situation which is worth about 225-260k on this busy street for this lot)
Lets look at a larger higher end home on a good street:
913 J AVE CORONADO 89118
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coronado/913-J-Ave-92118/home/5790736
| Beds: | 4 |
| Baths: | 4.5 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 3,988 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $537 |
| Lot Size: | 7,000 Sq. Ft. |
| Property Type: | Residential, Detached |
| Style: | Mediterranean/Spanish |
| Stories: | 2 |
| Community: | VILLAGE |
“Lovely Spanish Estate, just blocks from the beach. Beautiful home on 1 of the most sought after streets on the island J Ave!”
PRICE=$2140000
Property History for 913 J Ave
| Date | Event | Price | Appreciation | Source | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2011 | Price Changed | $2,140,000 | – | SANDICOR #110015180 | ||
| Aug 16, 2011 | Price Changed | $2,148,000 | – | SANDICOR #110015180 | ||
| May 12, 2011 | Price Changed | $2,299,000 | – | SANDICOR #110015180 | ||
| Mar 12, 2011 | Listed (Active) | $2,385,000 | – | SANDICOR #110015180 | ||
| Mar 16, 2009 | Sold (Public Records) | $2,400,000 | 7.4%/yr | Public Records | ||
| Jun 15, 1998 | Sold (Public Records) | $1,110,000 | 26.4%/yr | Public Records | ||
| Jul 23, 1997 | Sold (Public Records) | $900,000 | – | Public Records | ||
Here we have a large 4000 sq ft home on a large(by Coronado standards) Lot on a prime street in good condition. However not many upgrades since the 1998 sale.But nevertheless in good cond. They current owners thought they times the “crash “exactly in 2009 and paid $2400000! for the home. Now comes the haircut-4 price cuts already on current listing.
Lets look at what this property is currently worth:
“THE CALIFORNIA DREAMIN PRICE INDICATOR”
APPROX VALUE ON 01/01/20003= $1290000 + RENOVATIONS(60 AND IM BEING NICE)=
CURRENT VALUE $1310000
The Coronado bubble will take awhile to play out still. But with inevitable deficit cuts and Military cuts, can the Navy sustain the craziness there?
Expect a 30-50% haircut ahead for Fantasy Island!
Man those are some serious bubble prices. Laughable.
That place is toast.
All bubbles must go back to the beginning- all of them . The bigger ones take more time.
I encourage everyone to check out Harry Dent to see whats coming up in the next few years- not pretty for most but tons of opportunity
http://www.greatcrashahead1.com